30 06 2007

The transition has been worth noticing, but seldom noticed. From North Korea’s Nuclear tests down to Iran’s threat to develop the newborn Einstein’s fat boy, series of manipulations have been on the fore.

Who got the benefit? Yes, the Oil cartels, OPEC, Bush administration, Middle East countries. From military confrontations to UK soldiers’ captivity and their release, the tactics revolve around billion dollar oil reserve rich Middle East. The focus and the heat was on Iran Vs. America as the world braced itself for another brutal bloody showdown again. The bets had been placed; diplomatic efforts were conjoined again suggesting the respective citizens not to spare either money or travel to Iran.

While the table talks failed not once but miserably many a times with Russia joining the foray and China silently voting to back Iran but neither of the parties backed off. The nexus of America and Iran is not known to many. The Iranian revolution was a nice riddance of the Shah who grew expendable for the Pentagon. His time came and there he went without notice.

And rushed in the Ascetics, who claimed to be benign to the material pleasures, but its vice versa and Iran was closed to the world. China and Iran have enjoyed the isolation. Both developed indigenous industries, latter couldn’t measure up to it but sustained but China now prepares to go global as ever with its economy posting 10 to 11% of growth which was way below the actual performance.

Even here, the policy of showdown goes blurred. And why did it? America needs an ally. Iran needs backbone support to continue its religious hegemony which has grown unpopular since 1979. Self imposed religious rule has given birth to standards which are marred by discrimination and lax for the upper echelons of the society. The lower as usual pay taxes and follow the law, although with dissent.

America is not voracious for the oil, for it would have it even without confrontation. But then Iran had to be projected as the Big Brother of Middle East. The status quo of America doesn’t allow itself to bend over and exercise its foreign policy anymore. Chavez is the new entrant to prove that. Castro again being one of the pioneers. Story gets twisted altogether.

The chances of these two powers to ultimately face each other in the battle ground have grown quite dim to impossibility. From the back door, both are imminent allies. Yes allies and not since some years but long before the revolution of France and England jolted Europe and the latter was not founded.

Iran, with its vast resources, has not only won reliable buyers but its now working to open its closed knit society to the world. Russians were all over the world after the disintegration, Iran would like to bypass that, but with a price and itself being crowned as the big brother of Middle East.

Before the demise of Bush’s administration, possible evidence are around that Arab world would welcome Iran into its comity, if not sooner but it would. Times are changing, papers are being arranged and Iran nuke is not a possibility, not in the near future, future being 10 years.

With the threats that came in for the military adventure and aircraft carriers donning the Arabian seas, were just another gimmick to project Iran as the baby boy ready to be beaten. Saudia changed stance, instantly. Diplomatic visits were visible. The maps have been chalked out.

Iran on the other hand, is using its influence in Palestine stoking the civil war between Al-Fatah and Hamas. Hamas being the spoilt child of Persia. The same was in Lebanon during the Israeli raids. Twist again. But this time, Israel is not getting the bashing; instead, its getting a cushion of security when the Palestinian locals are at logger heads. Twist again. Who are the game masters? Evident but twisted again.

Moreover, the possibility of the attacks grow dim again with the backdrop of the fact that, Iran would nurture the hatred between Shia and Sunnis. With its majority of the ruling class or all of them being Shias, why would it need to mend fences with Sunnis when it can see its control, the diplomatic control, from Lebanon to farther east without patching up with them? Animosity with Sunnis is profitable for the ruling echelons of Iran. On one side, Iran is a Muslim country; the other side is a concocted but a based fact that Shias and Sunnis have never been on comfortable terms. A difference America wants to cash in on from now onwards. Remnants are strengthening in Iraq lately. Twist again.

America weakens as evident from Sudan’s and Somalia’s strikes. That being another story. America now wants its strategy-making elements to have its base now shifted to expedite manipulations. Like CentCom, Iran is the new investment zone.

Blair’s gone and Gordon Brown has taken the seat with Blair’s boots. Blair’s new ambassador of peace for those countries where his partnership initiated the blood bath which is still unaccounted. Strange but twisted realities again.

Blair would like to be on the forefront to be effective. His homework has already started. His political vacation is to start soon. With Middle East being the first target. Middle East is getting a new face, soon.

Everything aside, oil tycoons are not ready to plunge their billion dollar investment into the fire in the Oil wells in Iran. Fire from wars.




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